Friday 23 June 2017

One year on and here we go...


Leaving Europe
I will try to never use the B word again, it is inane and meaningless.
As the negotiations to leave Europe start, and the unexpected political environment in which they occur, I begin to wonder what can or will actually change. There is no doubt that any government, current or new, will have to ensure some part in a single market. Otherwise the British Economy will collapse as nearly everything we as consumers demand has interdependence with Europe. If those links are broken, the tariffs and exchange issues would have a catastrophic impact on prices and inflation. An example of this interdependence is the beloved Mini motorcar, seen by many as a symbol of Britain. It is still built in Britain (jobs), but owned by BMW. The crankshaft for this car is cast in Spain after which it is sent to Britain to be machined. From here it goes to Germany to be built into the engine, which is then sent back to Britain for the final car assembly. This is only viable in a single market, because if import and export tariffs are added for each boundary crossed, it would make the product financially unviable. Resulting in BMW pulling out and jobs lost along with a successful product. This interdependence applies to everything from energy, to food, to consumer products, to infrastructure support and much more. So leaving the single market would be an industrial disaster that no government would want, be it Conservatives as advocates for business or Labour as advocates for the workers.
So what Europe is quite rightly saying is that if this is to be negotiated, the status of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU must be resolved, along with resolving existing financial arrangements. In other words the Divorce before the Business.
Counter to expectations, and my own personal fears, May has now gone to Europe and proposed something far more realistic than the hate politics of the last year had suggested. It is still not realistic enough but moving in the right direction.
The first thing that the Leave community will now have to accept is that Europeans will not be ejected wholesale. Now for most that is probably acceptable, but that horrendous underbelly of racism that has exposed itself will now have to be brought to their senses, and I wonder if that is possible. They do not understand that it takes the free movement of people to create political and economic stability.
As Britain has now conceded to Europe's demands on resolving citizen status, I do wonder how many obstacles will be insurmountable as these negotiations move forward. Maybe in the end sense will prevail and this whole episode will come to an end with the acceptance that any referendum is only advisory, and not an opportunity for the far right to stage a take over. I think this is one of the things the people were saying on June 8th.

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